The impact of the DRC cobalt export ban extension

The Democratic Republic of the Congo（DRC) cobalt export ban extension has caused quick changes in the cobalt market. Prices jumped up fast from a nine-year low to $16 per pound. Supply problems made battery, EV, and electronics makers very worried. The DRC controls 76% of the world’s cobalt supply. This makes them the most important player. The extension makes stocks even tighter now. Other places like Indonesia cannot fill the gap.

Statistic Description	Value / Figure
DRC share of global cobalt supply (2023)	76%
Cobalt price before ban (early 2024)	$10 per pound
Cobalt price after ban	$16 per pound
Indonesia cobalt market share (2024 projection)	22%

The drc’s extension keeps affecting the cobalt market. This makes industries change their plans quickly.

Key Takeaways

• The DRC has most of the world’s cobalt, so its export ban makes it hard to get enough cobalt and prices go up. – Cobalt prices went from $10 to $16 for each pound after the ban, so batteries and electronics cost more. – Battery and EV makers now pay more and worry about getting enough cobalt, so they look for new places to get it and try to recycle cobalt. – The DRC’s ban changes jobs and money for the government, so they must choose between keeping control or growing the economy. – New cobalt-free batteries and recycling help companies lower risks and get ready for changes in the market.

DRC Cobalt Export Ban Overview

Ban Timeline and Extension

The drc cobalt export ban started in February 2025. The government stopped all cobalt exports for four months. They wanted to fix low prices and too much cobalt in the market. In June 2025, they added three more months to the ban. This new rule covers every cobalt mine, big and small. the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets (ARECOMS) said they will check the market before the deadline. They might change, end, or keep the ban, depending on what happens.

Note: The cobalt export ban already made prices go up fast. Most cobalt from the democratic republic of the congo has reached buyers. The extension will make supply even tighter.

Strategic Goals of the Ban

The drc cobalt export ban has many important goals. The democratic republic of the congo owns 55% of the world’s cobalt reserves. It also makes 76% of the world’s cobalt. This gives the country a lot of power in the cobalt market. The main reasons for the ban and its extension are:

• Help cobalt prices by cutting supply when there is too much.

• Make the country stronger in the world market.

• Get more cobalt processed in the country before selling it.

A table below shows the main points:

Strategic Goal	Description
Price Support	Reduce oversupply to boost cobalt prices
Market Power	Strengthen control over the global cobalt market
Domestic Processing	Promote local value-added activities before export

Big producers do not all agree about the drc cobalt export ban. Some want export quotas, but others want the ban to end. The government tries to balance jobs, money, and control of this important resource.

Supply and Price Impact

Global Supply Disruption

The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has caused big problems for the world’s supply chain. The DRC has most of the world’s cobalt reserves and makes more than three-quarters of all cobalt. When the government added three more months to the ban, the market felt the change right away. Experts think the seven-month ban will take over 100,000 metric tonnes of cobalt away from the world market. This big drop has made it hard for supply to meet demand, and every part of the industry feels it.

The Mutanda Cu-Co mine in the DRC also closed, which took about 27,000 tons of cobalt out of the market in just one year. This mine gave the world 20% of its mined cobalt. Losing such a big source made the market even more sensitive to changes in supply. Even though the world made more cobalt, going from 136,000 tons in 2018 to 153,000 tons in 2019, most of it still comes from the DRC. So, any problem there has a huge effect. Other countries like Indonesia have tried to make more cobalt, but their share is much smaller and cannot make up for what the DRC lost.

Note: Over 65% of refined cobalt is processed in China, and more than 70% of cobalt comes from the DRC. This means the market can change quickly if the DRC changes its rules.

Cobalt Price Movements

Cobalt prices have gone up a lot since the export ban started and got longer. Before the ban, cobalt was at a nine-year low, about $10 per pound. After the ban, prices jumped to $16 per pound, and some places saw prices as high as $18 per pound. On China’s Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange, cobalt futures went up 9% to 254 yuan per kilogram ($35.34), the highest since March 14, 2025. This fast rise shows that cobalt prices change quickly when supply drops.

From February to June, cobalt prices went up by 58% to 91% for different types. For example, MB cobalt and cobalt intermediates had the biggest jumps. In China, domestic metallic cobalt prices also went up by 47%. The longer ban is expected to cause another round of price increases as supplies run out and new cobalt is still hard to get. Many experts think cobalt prices will stay high for a long time, especially if the DRC keeps tight control or adds new limits.

A table below shows recent cobalt price changes:

Date	Cobalt Price (per pound)	% Increase Since Feb 2025
Feb 2025	$10	–
June 2025	$16	+60%
Peak (Mar 2025)	$18	+80%

Other suppliers, like Indonesia, have made more cobalt, but they only cover a small part of what the world needs. Indonesia’s share is about 10% to 22%, which is not enough to make up for the DRC’s loss. Because of this, cobalt prices are still high, and buyers do not know what will happen next.

Cobalt prices will likely keep changing a lot while the DRC keeps strict export rules. The longer ban has made the market even tighter, and many people think prices will go up more if supplies keep dropping.

Effects on Battery and EV Industries

Production and Cost Pressures

Battery and EV makers have new problems because of the DRC cobalt export ban. Companies now find it hard to get enough cobalt for their products. The cost to make batteries has gone up a lot. Many battery makers need cobalt from the DRC, so any trouble there causes big issues right away. Chinese companies are very important in cobalt mining and processing. This gives them a lot of control over the world’s supply. Many companies cannot see the real costs because prices are not clear and some companies own many steps in the process. This makes it hard for rule-makers to watch the market and for companies to plan their spending. Problems like fights between countries and corruption in the DRC make things worse. Companies must spend more time and money to get mining rights and permits. All these things slow down how fast the supply chain can grow and make costs higher for the whole EV industry.

Indonesia stopped exporting nickel ore in 2014, and this also hurt battery and EV makers. Chinese companies spent over $14 billion to build nickel smelters in Indonesia. This shows that companies must change fast when rules and costs go up. Now, China and Indonesia control almost 60% of the world’s nickel processing. This makes the supply chain weaker and brings more money risks. Battery and EV makers now pay more for materials and worry about getting enough in the future.

⚡ Battery and EV makers now have to pay more, wait longer, and face bigger risks as they try to get enough cobalt.

Supply Chain Adjustments

The cobalt export ban made battery and EV companies change their supply chains. Many car makers now look for new places to get important minerals. Some companies put money into recycling or work with suppliers outside the DRC and China. These changes help lower risks and keep making products.

Numbers show how supply chains have changed:

Indicator	Data	Interpretation
Number of EV models eligible for full tax credits under IRA (Year 1)	27 vehicles from 9 automakers	Heavy dependence on China for battery components and minerals
Number of EV models eligible for full tax credits under IRA (Year 2)	42 vehicles from 9 automakers	Private sector efforts to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on China
US import dependence on Graphite	100%	Complete reliance on imports for graphite, with 37% sourced from China
US import dependence on Manganese	100%	Full import reliance, but 0% from China, showing diversification
US import dependence on Cobalt	76%	High import reliance, but only 1% from China, showing some adjustment
US import dependence on Primary Nickel	48%	Moderate import reliance, 2% from China, indicating reduced dependency
US import dependence on Lithium	>50%	Majority import reliance, less than 3% from China, reflecting supply chain shifts

Car makers now have more EV models that get full tax credits. This means companies work harder to find new sources for their supply chains. The US still needs to import many important minerals, but where they come from is changing. For example, the US now gets less cobalt and nickel from China. Companies also look for new partners in other countries to lower risks.

🔍 Changing supply chains helps battery and EV makers deal with shortages and follow new market rules.

Consumer and Electronics Market

Price and Availability Changes

The DRC cobalt export ban extension has made new problems for electronics. Companies that make smartphones, laptops, and tablets now pay more for materials. Cobalt prices have gone up a lot since the ban started. Many electronics makers need steady cobalt prices to keep costs low. When cobalt gets more expensive, companies must choose to pay more or charge customers more.

A table below shows how higher cobalt prices affect common electronics:

Product Type	Impact of Higher Cobalt Prices
Smartphones	Increased production costs
Laptops	Possible price hikes
Tablets	Tighter supply, higher prices

Note: Some companies try to find new suppliers or other materials, but most still use cobalt from the DRC.

End-User Impacts

People now see changes when they buy electronics. Many notice that new devices cost more than before. Some stores have fewer choices because makers cannot get enough cobalt. Higher cobalt prices also slow down new product releases. Shoppers may wait longer for new phones or laptops.

Electronics brands use different ways to handle these problems:

• They launch fewer new products.

• They give fewer discounts or sales.

• They put money into recycling old devices to get cobalt back.

⚠️ People should expect prices to keep rising and fewer choices if cobalt stays expensive.

Makers and stores watch cobalt prices all the time. They change their plans when the market changes. The DRC export ban has made the electronics market harder to predict for everyone.

DRC Economy and Policy

Revenue and Employment

Cobalt mining is very important for the DRC’s economy. Mining gives about 30% of the government’s money. Cobalt is a big part of this income. The industry gives jobs to many people. About 90,000 people have regular jobs in cobalt mining. Also, between 150,000 and 200,000 people work in small mines.

• Mining brings in a lot of tax money for public needs.

• Big mining companies give steady jobs and teach new skills.

• Small mines help many families, mostly in the countryside.

The cobalt export ban hurts these workers and the government’s money. When exports slow down, companies might cut jobs or stop new projects. This can mean fewer jobs and less money for schools and hospitals. The government must choose between keeping control and keeping the economy strong.

Future Policy Options

The DRC government has different ways to manage its cobalt and power in the market. Experts think using export bans with quotas could make supply tight and prices high. Companies are already careful, with some stopping shipments and others making fewer deals.

1. The government could set limits on how much cobalt leaves each year.

2. Leaders might set lowest or highest prices to keep the market steady.

3. Some big miners, like Glencore, want quotas to keep prices steady, but others want fewer rules to avoid money problems.

4. The DRC could use quotas to get more power, like OPEC does with oil.

5. Experts say a good quota system could keep cobalt prices between $13 and $16 per pound, helping both miners and makers.

6. But if rules are not followed or buyers find other options, new problems could happen.

The government needs to think hard about these choices. Good rules can help the DRC get more from its cobalt and keep jobs and the economy growing.

Market Adaptation and Outlook

Cobalt-Free Technologies

Battery makers and car companies are working more on cobalt-free technologies. The market for these new batteries is growing fast. In 2023, cobalt-free batteries made $1.16 billion. In 2024, the market grew to $1.32 billion. Experts think it will reach $2.22 billion by 2028. This means the market grows about 13.8% each year. People want these batteries because they worry about the environment. Electric vehicles are becoming more popular. Companies also want to pay less for cobalt. New battery types, like solid-state batteries and LFP cells, are safer and use energy better. Companies such as Toshiba and Lithium Werks have made new cobalt-free batteries. North America leads in research, but Asia-Pacific is growing the fastest.

Evidence Category	Details
Market Size (2023)	$1.16 billion
Market Size (2024)	$1.32 billion
CAGR (2023-2028)	13.8%
Market Forecast (2028)	$2.22 billion
Key Advances	Solid-state batteries, LFP cells, low-nickel cathodes
Regional Leadership	North America (R&D), Asia-Pacific (growth)

Companies now see using less cobalt as a way to save money and avoid supply problems.

Recycling and Diversification

Recycling and finding new sources are now very important for battery and electronics companies. Old batteries around the world have up to 0.52 million tons of cobalt. In China, city mines could give 186,500 tons of cobalt. In Hong Kong, city mining might give 300,000 to 500,000 tons by 2050. This could be worth $2 billion each year. These facts show recycling and city mining help lower the need for new cobalt from mines. Recycling lets places without natural cobalt use what they already have. This makes the supply chain safer. Recycling and city mining will not fully replace regular mining soon. But they help make the supply safer and better for the future.

Companies and governments are putting money into recycling and new sources to keep the market steady for a long time.

Ongoing Uncertainties

The cobalt market still has many unknowns. The DRC government might set new export limits or price rules. These changes could change how much cobalt is sold and its price. Prices can change a lot, and investors watch the rules closely. Some companies do not want to make long deals because the rules are not clear. Others look for new suppliers or spend money on research to avoid problems later. The market will likely stay unsure until rules are clear and new technology is used more.

The future of the cobalt market depends on new rules, new technology, and how fast companies can change.

The DRC cobalt export ban extension changes things for many people. Miners, manufacturers, and buyers all feel the effects. Battery and EV makers pay more and have less cobalt to use. Electronics brands see prices go up and have fewer products to sell. The DRC still controls most of the market and might change its rules again. Prices will keep going up and down, and there may not be enough supply.

Companies now spend money on recycling and new battery technology. They also change how they get their supplies. These actions help them deal with the DRC’s choices.

FAQ

What is the main impact of the drc cobalt export ban extension?

The extension means there is less cobalt for everyone. This makes it hard for buyers to get enough. Prices go up because there is not enough supply. Battery, EV, and electronics companies feel these changes first. The cobalt market changes a lot as companies look for new places to buy.

How does the cobalt export ban affect cobalt demand?

People still want a lot of cobalt, mostly for batteries and electric vehicles. The Democratic Republic of Congo gives most of the world’s cobalt. When the ban stops exports, buyers fight over what is left. This makes competition stronger and prices go up in the cobalt market.

Can other countries replace the Democratic Republic of Congo’s cobalt supply?

Some countries, like Indonesia, try to make more cobalt. But they cannot give as much as the Democratic Republic of Congo. The ban shows that the world depends on one place for cobalt. This makes the drc’s export ban even more important.

What are companies doing to address the supply-demand imbalance?

Companies put money into recycling and finding new ways to use less cobalt. They also try to buy from new places outside the democratic republic of congo. These steps help lower risks and keep the cobalt market steady for the future.

Will cobalt prices stay high in the future?

Cobalt prices might stay high if the drc keeps the export ban. The drc’s extension and less supply make things unsure. The future depends on new rules, new battery ideas, and how much cobalt the world can get.